Weekend reading: Skip The Krypton Factor

Weekend reading: Skip The Krypton Factor post image

What caught my eye this week.

According to the reliably provocative Cullen Roche at Pragmatic Capital, factor picking is the new sector picking for flighty trader types.

And the problem with that, Roche writes, is:

“Predicting factors isn’t just identifying known sectors of the market. Factors are moving targets that require an even greater degree of asset forecasting than sectoral picking.”

Roche includes a new chart from Northern Trust [PDF], showing how factor returns have been all over the place from year to year:

Clearly active investors are going to have to be channeling Mystic Meg to successfully switch from factor to factor in advance, given that chart. The vast majority will surely fail.

What about passive investors?

My co-blogger has made the case for adding a factor tilt to your portfolio (he prefers the term return premiums) whereas Monevator contributor Lars Kroijer is skeptical, and suggests you stick to simple market-cap weighted indices.

Your choice. But if you do decide to add a factor tilt to your index portfolio, then I’d suggest it’s best to commit to your strategy for the long-term and rebalance as required.

Clearly some years are going to be bad years, even if overall the allocation pays off.

From Monevator

The Slow and Steady passive portfolio update: Q2 2017 – Monevator

Why I don’t use the FIRE acronym for financial freedom [Good comments, too]Monevator

From the archive-ator: You don’t have to go nuclear on working for a living – Monevator

News

Note: Some links are Google search results – in PC/desktop view these enable you to click through to read the piece without being a paid subscriber.1

UK faces tightest squeeze on household finances in five years – Guardian

£1,000 cash in a savings account in 2007 now worth £878 in real terms – Guardian

Some Shard apartments are still empty, five years on – Guardian

10 ways HMRC can tell if you’re a tax cheat [Search result]FT

Mel B has “wiped out” her estimated £50m Spice Girls fortune, LA court told – Telegraph

If you hold AIM shares and noticed weird quotes this week, here’s why [Forum]Stockopedia

NIMBYs told Tory building plans could boost the value of their homes – Telegraph

What happened to the BTL tax backlash? It’s getting cheaper to rent! – Telegraph

Family of four needs “at least £40,800” a year, says think tank – Guardian

Graduates in England face decades repaying £60,000 of student debt – Bloomberg

Products, taxes, and services

Tesco revamps Clubcard scheme, adds Uber to list of reward partners – ThisIsMoney

Are you taxed on a divorce settlement? No, but beware wrinkles – Telegraph

Would you gamble on HSBC’s new 0.99% tracker mortgage? – ThisIsMoney

Virgin’s Manchester United bond triples 1% return if it does double – Professional Advisor

Funeral plans could be “the latest mis-selling con” – ThisIsMoney

HSBC and Investec have joined the ranks of the robo-advisors – ThisIsMoney

Charity opt-out service launched to crack down on donation requests – Guardian

Amazon is promising its usual raft of offers for its made-up festival, Prime Day – Amazon

Comment and opinion

What I learned from my ‘faux-tirement’ – Morningstar

The awesomeness of not being important – Think Save Retire

Why consumer goods giants will pay Clooney-Tunes prices for rivals – Value Perspective

How to save for retirement with a lumpy income – Liberate Life

Preview of the upcoming How to Retire at 40 broadcast on 10 July – ThisIsMoney

The case for selling out of Morrisons shares – UK Value Investor

The broadest markets offer the best likelihood of expected returns – Fortune Financial

Good decisions can have bad outcomes (and vice versa) – Oblivious Investor

Excess indexing? The stock market has entered Bizarro World – Bloomberg

In real estate – rent luxury, buy utility [US data but interesting]Financial Samurai

“Drunk with internet riches, hall-of-fame investor Stanley Druckenmiller plowed an additional $6 billion into tech stocks in March 2000. The bubble burst just days later and he lost $3 billion. When asked what he learned from that experience, Druckenmiller replied, “I didn’t learn anything. I already knew that I wasn’t supposed to do that. I was just an emotional basket case and couldn’t help myself.”Bloomberg

Off our beat

Seems young men are skipping work for superior video games – New York Times

More from Tim Hartford: Fantasy gaming can be better than a job [Search result]FT

Alain de Botton Tweets ironically about banks leaving UK. Brexiteer misses joke – Twitter

Economist Milton Friedman predicted the failure of the bloody War on Drugs – AE Ideas

And finally…

A part of all I earn is mine to keep.’ Say it in the morning when you first arise. Say it at noon. Say it at night. Say it each hour of every day. Say it to yourself until the words stand out like letters of fire across the sky.”
– George S. Clason’s classic The Richest Man In Babylon is just 99p on Kindle

Like these links? Subscribe to get them every Friday!

  1. Note some articles can only be accessed through the search results if you’re using PC/desktop view (from mobile/tablet view they bring up the firewall/subscription page). To circumvent, switch your mobile browser to use the desktop view. On Chrome for Android: press the menu button followed by “Request Desktop Site”.

from Monevator http://monevator.com/weekend-reading-skip-the-krypton-factor/

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